Canoga Park, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

590
FXUS66 KLOX 080601
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1001 PM PST Fri Mar 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...07/903 PM.

Dry and warmer weather is expected through the weekend, then
cooler and cloudier conditions are expected next week as another
series of storm systems will bring more rain and mountain snow to
the region next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...07/926 PM.

Ridging aloft is building across the state this evening as the
trough that brought cooler and unsettled weather the last several
days exits to the east. A warming and drying trend will take place
over the next couple of days with daytime temperatures warming to
above normal on Sunday. With exception of some stratus clouds
along the Central Coast this evening, clouds will clear over the
coming days as offshore flow establishes. With clearing skies
tonight, radiative cooling processes will be much more efficient
in wind sheltered areas. This will allow for another night of cold
overnight low temperatures. A frost advisory was added for the
Ojai Valley for early Saturday morning in the latest forecast
update.

As offshore flow develops into Saturday morning, there is a chance
of gusty northeast winds developing through the Los Angeles County
mountains. The latest NAM-WRF solutions suggest winds getting
marginally into advisory levels on Saturday morning across the
western San Gabriel mountains and the Highway 14 Corridor, but EPS
ensemble members for K3A6 and KSDB, and high-resolution multi-
model ensemble members all keep winds below advisory criteria. The
next shift will be briefed accordingly and any decisions on a wind
advisory will be tabled for now.

An update was issued previously and no additional updates are
expected at this time.

***From Previous Discussion***

A very quiet weekend of weather expected as a ridge of high
pressure moves over the state. A few lingering showers in the
mountains this afternoon, some of which may float over the
LA/Ventura valleys and coastal areas. Some gusty west to northwest
winds expected this afternoon and evening, especially near the
coast. And still some chilly temperatures overnight with some
inland valley areas dropping below freezing.

Pressure gradients are expected to turn lightly offshore Saturday
and Sunday which will start a warming trend that will peak on
Sunday with highs in the 70s in most valleys and 60s to low 70s
for coastal areas. Not expecting any significant offshore winds
but there could be some morning wind gusts from the northeast up
to around 30 mph in the LA mountains and Santa Susanas and 15-25
mph from Acton and Clarita through the highway 126 and 118
corridors, mainly on Saturday.

An upper low will be approaching the area Monday. Models have been
trending farther south with this one with fewer, if any impacts
expected in southwest California. If models continue this trend
it`s possible little to no rain will fall from this first system
Monday into early Tuesday. In any case, confidence is high that
impacts will at most be very minimal.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...07/222 PM.

The second storm next week still on track for later Wednesday
into Thursday. This one has the potential to create some
significant impacts across the area with periods of heavy rain and
significant mountain snow accumulations. Ensembles still showing
quite a spread in the possible outcomes, but the position and
orientation of the trough and tapping into ample moisture and
cold air aloft, this is certainly a storm that will need to
followed closely over the coming days. Current ensemble mean rain
amounts are still mostly under one inch for most coast/valley
areas, but there are quite a few solutions over 2 inches.

A large portion of the precipitation from this system will fall
during a relatively short period of time (roughly 6 hours) when
the cold front comes through, which looks to be in the Wednesday
night into early Thursday period. During that period rain rates
could reach or exceed a half inch per hour, potentially creating
significant issues for the recent burn areas. Given the amount of
cold air aloft thunderstorm chances can`t be ruled out. With these
factors in mind, the current official rain total forecast is for
storm 2 is 1-2 inches coast/valleys and 2-4" mountains. Snow
levels will mostly be 5000-6000 feet, but will fall quickly
Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the cold front comes
through, possibly as low as 3000-3500 feet. 1-2 feet of snow could
fall at the higher elevations.

Dry but chilly weather expected next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...08/0601Z.

At 0526Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Low confidence in TAF for KPRB with a 40% chance for VLIFR conds
12Z-18Z.

High confidence in remaining TAFs.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. There is a 30% chance of an 8kt
east wind component 08Z-18Z.

KBUR....High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...07/128 PM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level W-NW winds and seas are expected
to continue much thru late tonight across the Outer Waters. Sub
advisory conditions will then prevail through the weekend. Then,
there is a 30-40% chance for SCA winds beginning late Sunday or
early Monday and lasting into Tuesday. Higher chances (60-80%
chance) for SCA winds and seas return Wednesday, with the
potential for Gales.

For the Central Coast nearshore waters, winds are likely
to rise to SCA levels (70-80% chance) this afternoon through
evening. Then, there is a 20-30% chance for SCA conds late Monday
into Tuesday, with higher chances (50-70%) beginning Wednesday.

In the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, SCA winds with
short period seas are expected thru this evening, otherwise conds
should remain below SCA levels thru at least Sunday. There is a
20-30% chance for SCA winds Monday afternoon through Tuesday, with
greater chances (50-70%) beginning Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Frost Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Saturday for zone
      357. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Saturday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall/MW
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Black/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith/Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox